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| Jan 20 2010, 2:18 AM EST | LLukeL | 3257 words added |
| Jan 20 2010, 2:08 AM EST | LLukeL |
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“The Analysis of the Psychology of Survivor’s Parlay in a Zombie Apocalypse”
Haggling has existed since the dawn of man. “I want what you have, what will you take/do you want for it?”
With the advent of currency as a useless paper/cotton/metal product in a Zed-Infested world, the relative worth of material goods in people’s minds begins to come into play.
Half your canned food stock for a genny?
Ten liters of Petrol for 6 rifles and 500 rounds?
Your shelter for all their arms, gas, and vehicles?
Are any of these deals good?
Bartering is your only diplomatic way to gain supplies from other survivors, and may be your only hope of living through hell on earth. Good negotiation skills, a hefty and various item stock of your own, or a collegiate psych course or two, will all beneficial to you in your communication endeavors.
The key to bartering is not about the goods. You know what you want. That is all the item has to do with bartering. Bartering is about the people conducting the exchange, particularly their perception.
You meet a man with a pickup truck. In the bed of the pickup truck is 40kg of gold. He is willing to barter with you, taking nothing in exchange for the gold, save all the oranges you have. You have one small crate (5kg) of oranges inside the warehouse you are staying in with other survivors. What do you do?
In my mind, if you take the gold you are terminally stupid. WTF? Yes! You just gave away sustenance for a heavy worthless hunk of metal! You protest: “Worthless!? It’s freaking gold! Literally!” My words to describe gold: Heavy, useless. All you could use it for is to drop it on a Zed’s head from the ceiling. Its only worth is whatever you can get for it to con someone else with “It’s freaking gold!” In the words of my dad: “It’s worth only what someone is willing to pay for it.”
Why is gold so valuable? Because everyone thinks it is. This is where perception comes into play. You thought the gold was valuable, but unless you can convince someone else this fact, it is totally worthless, other than the world’s heaviest, shiniest paperweight. Playing on perception is the key to bartering.
You now know the basic premise.
The following is a simple guide to aid you in determining what to want, what to get rid of, and how to trade.
What You Want:
One of the ultimate tools in your belt at the bartering table is choice. You want something. Dependant on what you choose the more or less your parlay in exchange will be. You should have some criteria to use to select what you are willing to give up your stuff for.
Materiel Need: Have you use for it? A starving colony has no need of power drills, it needs food. Likewise, don’t trade all your guns for one.
Amount of Materiel: How much is actually there? 1kg oranges vs. 50kg.
Amount of Usage: How much can you use it before it becomes useless? If you get batteries, how long will they last? If you get a crossbow, how many shots can you get in its lifetime?
Shelf Keep: How long can this remain in disuse, before it becomes useless? This can vary by need and item. For example: Don’t trade for 40kg of oranges; can you eat them all before they rot in X days? So if you need food, take as much as you can use within its shelf keep duration.
Value Generation: Does this item generate value? An ambiguous question, allow me to explain. An example of this would be a rifle: while useful (has bullets), it generates a source of food. If this value is above that of what you traded, then you have a good trade.
Pre-Disaster Value: Sometimes this may be all you have to go on. Like taking forty kilos of gold, people on earth think something’s valuable if… they think something’s valuable. Circular, I know, but if you are able to further the perception that gold continues to be incredibly valuable and not a heavy hunk of metal, the more you can begin to trade for it. So, sometimes trading for useless items is worth it, if, and only if, you can find someone who thinks it valuable enough to trade for something much more valuable, say, a vehicle.
Rarity: How often will you run into this? The rarer the item, the more useful it can be in a trade, or just more useful, period. (Hunting rifle vs. Springfield 1903)
Deviating too much from this can put you at risk from angry fellow survivors, as well as at risk from your own poor decisions. Consider its worth to both the other party and you, what it can do, how long it will last be able to do that, and how much you need before making any decisions.
Here is a simple checklist to use for considering your item to trade for.
The scale is purely subjective, and is used merely as food for thought.
Use it to calculate the items ultimate value to you.
Remember, this is only a guide to allow you to obtain an at a glance worth of your item. Maintenance, current condition, and numerous other factors all play into the necessity of an item, but this is simply to provide a rough estimate.
Materiel Need: ____/10, value = N
Amount of Materiel: ____/10, value = M
Amount of Usage: ____/10, value = U
Shelf Keep: ____/10, value = K
Value Generation: ____/10, value = G
Pre-Disaster Value: ____/10, value = P
Rarity: ____/10, value=R
Once you have determined the above values plug it into the following equation for an idea of its value.
Total Value = Log [2^(√K)](NGUM^2+P^2)(R/2)^2
This comes out to a seven point scale of how much you need the object. It is complex math but I believe it to be fairly accurate to when computing total value.
Examples:
1) Single Sausage 500g
Need: 6/10, it’s food
Amount of Materiel: 2/10, One sausage
Amount of Usage: 1/10, you can only eat it once
Shelf Keep: 2/10, unless you have salt, 3 days tops
Value Generation: 1/10, mold and disease
Pre-Disaster Value: 2/10, it’s a Sausage!
Rarity: 2/10, as above, it’s a Sausage!
2.595 out of 7, useful but not terribly so.
2) 10 blocks of c4 (1.5kg each)
Need: 6/10, Good for booby-traps, powerful booby-traps
Amount of Materiel: 5/10, Enough to level a building
Amount of Usage: 2/10, Can be broken into on the blocks, single-use items.
Shelf Keep: 5/10, can sweat making it dangerous for use
Value Generation: 3/10, more useful devaluing something, like others or obstacles
Pre-Disaster Value: 6/10, C4 is a valuable commodity anyway.
Rarity: 7/10, The likelihood of stumbling across this again is not great.
4.735 Definitely Useful, try and trade for this
3) .50 calibre sniper rifle
Need: 8/10, Good long distance defense, hunting, and scouting.
Amount of Materiel: 2/10, Only one to go around
Amount of Usage: 2/10, Without ammo, can easily become just a metal tube.
Shelf Keep: 8/10, if properly stored, can be used a lot, given routine maintenance.
Value Generation: 5/10, Can easily take down a large animal for food.
Pre-Disaster Value: 7/10, High-powered military equipment. ‘Nuff said.
Rarity: 8/10, Probably one of less than a thousand.
4.622 Useful, try and trade for this, but be tentative as there is but one, and ammo is rare.
What They Want:
Ideally, you will want to give the other party the least valuable single item you have, and receive as many valuable items as you can in exchange. More than likely this will not happen. However, there are a few principles to consider before making the exchange on the table. Here the same concepts and principles apply.
However, the thinking must be switched. In the previous section the thinking was in credit, that is, how much will what you want benefit you? Now the switch is to think in debit, that is, how much is a particular item a drain on space and resources? How much is its Pre-Disaster value? How much is its chop-value (value of individual parts? How rare is it? Do not think of how much they will want it (that will be in section 4), but in how much you don’t.
Points to consider include:
Weight/Immobility: How heavy, or in case of wheeled items, immobile, the item is. W
Volume: How much floorspace the does item obstruct? V
Value Generation: Does it generate a resource, like a genny making electricity? G
Amount of Usage: How much is it manually (labor. maintenance) used, and how much can it be used? U
Chop Value: What is the combined individual values of each of the items parts? C
Pre-Disaster Value: As above. P
Rarity: As above. R
The formula is a 5 point scale, and should be considered negative.
Ln [(WV)^(3)/(2^(√C)(G/U+√(P^2+R^2)))]^(3/4)
Let’s take a look at some examples:
1) An Oscillating Space Heater
Weight: 4/10 Not heavy, but not that light either
Volume: 2/10 Relatively compact size
Value Generation: 6/10 Generates much needed heat
Amount of Usage: 3/10 High energy cost, and not much use without power
Chop Value: 4/10 Heating element, cord, and that’s about it
Pre Disaster Value: 5/10 Fairly expensive, but not exorbitantly so.
Rarity: 7/10 Likely few left and working
2.025 It’s there, but not a huge detriment to your colony.
2) 50cm Japanese Porcelain Doll in Glass Case
Weight: 3/10 Light and hollow.
Volume: 6/10 50cm tall and a glass case?
Value Generation: 1/10 It’s, um… nice.
Amount of Usage: 1/10 Not much use I am afraid.
Chop Value: 1/10 None whatsoever
Pre Disaster Value: 2/10 not of much value, except to a collector.
Rarity: 9/10 Maybe one of a kind
4.317 Avoid it if possible.
3) A Generator
Weight: 4/10 Requires 1-2 people to lift, wheeled for convenience.
Volume: 4/10 Occupies 2.5m3
Value Generation: 10/10 Powers your base, Awesome!
Amount of Usage: 4/10 No manual labor, but needs gas.
Chop Value: 7/10 Various parts can be scavenged
Pre Disaster Value: 5/10 Good in times of emergency. Like, now!
Rarity: 6/10 Only found in main buildings of colonies.
3.11 A pain to lug around, but a necessity at times
Surprised that a space heater had a better score than a generator? Don’t be. Remember this 5 point debit scale does not necessarily measure the usefulness of the item, but rather its space:gain burden. Big items are a burden, and take up a lot of space, making you stop and think whether or not you want to make a bid in that serious investment.
Material Comparison:
The general idea is that the end of trade should be: Your_new_stuffs_value/((7/5)Your_old_stuffs_value)=√X
As long as X is greater than 1, then you, generally speaking, are better off, and the greater it is, the more so.
Break down any items you think need to be. Look at itemized and bundled values. Compare among models and production. Play with the formula numbers above to generate “what if?” scenarios among their goods and yours. Consider best and worst case scenarios, but weigh the more likely more heavily. Look at its parts, a neon sign may be no good to you, but the transformer may be exactly what you’re looking for. Browse his selection, and know yours. Bartering is a game of knowledge, knowing as much about your stock as his, and what each can offer is critical to a bountiful parlay between two parties.
The Art of Parlay
There are no magic words, item or technique that can net what you want every time. If you are going to trust something, trust your head, heart, or gut, not the guy at the other end of the table. Remember three commodities that will always be on the table, your location, your people, and yourself. If you are unsuccessful at deceiving your barter-buddy, the stakes may shoot way, way up and one of these things could be in jeopardy.
This is the meat of the barter. Like a poker game, the play is not about the pot or even the cards your opponents are holding. If you make moves to cause the other players to think their cards are worthless and yours are worth most, after which they back out, the value of the cards becomes irrelevant. The money netted is just gravy to sweeten the victory. Yet he with more money can stand to do more, to put more on the table, to wager more, and to last longer. The only way to beat your opponent is through boldness, contingency, and deception (and luck doesn’t hurt either).
There are numerous approaches to be undertaken when bartering for goods, suggested types for analysis in this article include: honest, shark-like, deceptive, defensive, aggressive, statistical, etc. This article will take a look at all the styles under normal trade conditions, but is not a catch all. As with any guide written, there will be exceptions, and the guide will be useless. As stated before, ultimately trust only your head, your heart, and your gut.
Honest: Provided the trader is aiming to screw you out of everything you have, this is the most respectable and, ideally, perfect, approach to have when dealing with any exchange. Having a strong sense of fairness (though not necessarily naïveté) and morals, he is straight to all he encounters, and he expects the same. He does even trades for fair prices. Probably the least likely scenario to happen, and the most stupid approach to take initially with any unknown party, as they can take all you have before you know it.
Shark-Like: Prime negotiator, starts extremely low to negotiate to a lower price than normal. Threatens his power of withdrawal liberally, reminding the trading party how much they will be losing. They jump from one item to the next, leaving no time to for recovery from a deal. Think used-car salesman and world champ poker player rolled into one. Do not attempt unless you can pull it off.
Deceptive: The con man’s here. Showers their bartering partner with items in exchange for something, like giving “all” (1/3) their canned food for a generator. Operates solely on crooked numbers, and straightens them only in his favor. Realizes that often, if on home turf, the guest to the parlay has no idea what is stored in the Deceptive’s colony, and exploits this fact. However, loose lips can cost lives, as one person with a blabber-mouth who’s not on board for the con can add a whole new spin to the game.
Defensive: This man barters only for what he and his colony needs; nothing more or less. Tries for fair prices, and likely will never back down from the table unless needs are met. Has some sense of prices and appeals to others’, and will attempt to collaborate for a deal or a workaround at fair prices. Typically quiet, but demanding if necessary, think the honest type with tight lips.
Aggressive: Looks to clean the trader out of whatever he has with whatever is in the Aggressive’s stash. Rash, arrogant, threatening, and more likely to receive more items, but also more likely to be conned or withdrawn. Will not back away from the table, and often will not stop ‘til he has what he wants. Think Shark-Like without as much restraint or brains.
Statistical: Uses numbers to make his argument, applying the same scale to both his side and that opposite him. Will back away from the table if the numbers don’t compute, and will not pursue any further. Not a smooth-talker by a long shot, and not necessarily the best approach to have, but it holds both parties to an absolute, non-negotiable, and indisputable standard, and will have little tolerance for anything but quid pro quo.
That whatever your approach is, there are two more home court advantages: if traders come to you, they don’t necessarily know all that you have, and, because of this, they gamble anytime you walk away. Better yet, if you attempt to walk away with something they want, the items price may shoot up as well.
Now, the general scenario of typical bartering has been covered, however, what is to be understood is that, when bartering without force, there are tripolar extremes:
You want it, he wants it.
You want it, he will let you essentially just have it.
You want it, and he knows it.
Each of these has its own separate dynamic, and must be carried out carefully to secure the item.
Taking each in turn there are, generally speaking, best case and worst case scenarios that can develop, and few in between.
You Want It, He Wants It.
Best Case: Not quite as bad as you would think, probably is asking for fair or a little more than fair compensation for the item in question. Be sure to know your stock thoroughly, as this becomes the bargaining chips you have to work with.
Worst Case: He will never give it up. Period, done, goodbye.
You Want It, He Will Let You Just Have It.
Best Case: You get a really good deal: he has no use for it, you do, “Here ya go,” “Thanks!”
Worst Case: There is a reason that he may not disclose to you why he does not want it. Often a defective or nonworking item, be sure to get the policy of “Try Before You Buy” with the item.
You Want It, and He Knows It.
Best Case: As above
Worst Case: “So you’re pretty desperate, huh?” “Yeah” “Your water truck” “A minute ago you said half of our perishable food” “No I didn’t” “Yes, you did” Without superior firepower, good luck arguing that one.
Finally, to address the last issue of violence:
It is said that “Diplomacy and Violence both solve problems. Violence is just quicker.” This is true. Any trading party that comes to your area is likely heavily armed and may stage a takeover, or worse yet, may be an ambush party posing as a trading party, resulting in the capture of members of your colony and any goods or weapons they may have. I cannot advise you to this capacity, I can only warn you. My solution is that your trade party members wear an explosive belt with a deadman switch, but some consider that cold. As before I can only warn you to the dangers of such things, and as each case is different, cannot elaborate due to circumstances far too numerous to list. All I can say are two, highly ineffectual words: “Be Careful”
Afterword:
Congratulations! You made it! I know, each article I type is like JK Rowling’s Harry Potter Series, each gets longer and longer. I, LLukeL, personally want to thank you for your time and effort reading this, and hope this aids you in any trade you do. May your endeavors be fruitful even in disaster. Thank you again for reading this, and I wish you all good luck in event of Z-Day.
“The Analysis of the Psychology of Survivor’s Parlay in a Zombie Apocalypse”
Haggling has existed since the dawn of man. “I want what you have, what will you take/do you want for it?”
With the advent of currency as a useless paper/cotton/metal product in a Zed-Infested world, the relative worth of material goods in people’s minds begins to come into play.
Half your canned food stock for a genny?
Ten liters of Petrol for 6 rifles and 500 rounds?
Your shelter for all their arms, gas, and vehicles?
Are any of these deals good?
Bartering is your only diplomatic way to gain supplies from other survivors, and may be your only hope of living through hell on earth. Good negotiation skills, a hefty and various item stock of your own, or a collegiate psych course or two, will all beneficial to you in your communication endeavors.
The key to bartering is not about the goods. You know what you want. That is all the item has to do with bartering. Bartering is about the people conducting the exchange, particularly their perception.
You meet a man with a pickup truck. In the bed of the pickup truck is 40kg of gold. He is willing to barter with you, taking nothing in exchange for the gold, save all the oranges you have. You have one small crate (5kg) of oranges inside the warehouse you are staying in with other survivors. What do you do?
In my mind, if you take the gold you are terminally stupid. WTF? Yes! You just gave away sustenance for a heavy worthless hunk of metal! You protest: “Worthless!? It’s freaking gold! Literally!” My words to describe gold: Heavy, useless. All you could use it for is to drop it on a Zed’s head from the ceiling. Its only worth is whatever you can get for it to con someone else with “It’s freaking gold!” In the words of my dad: “It’s worth only what someone is willing to pay for it.”
Why is gold so valuable? Because everyone thinks it is. This is where perception comes into play. You thought the gold was valuable, but unless you can convince someone else this fact, it is totally worthless, other than the world’s heaviest, shiniest paperweight. Playing on perception is the key to bartering.
You now know the basic premise.
The following is a simple guide to aid you in determining what to want, what to get rid of, and how to trade.
What You Want:
One of the ultimate tools in your belt at the bartering table is choice. You want something. Dependant on what you choose the more or less your parlay in exchange will be. You should have some criteria to use to select what you are willing to give up your stuff for.
Materiel Need: Have you use for it? A starving colony has no need of power drills, it needs food. Likewise, don’t trade all your guns for one.
Amount of Materiel: How much is actually there? 1kg oranges vs. 50kg.
Amount of Usage: How much can you use it before it becomes useless? If you get batteries, how long will they last? If you get a crossbow, how many shots can you get in its lifetime?
Shelf Keep: How long can this remain in disuse, before it becomes useless? This can vary by need and item. For example: Don’t trade for 40kg of oranges; can you eat them all before they rot in X days? So if you need food, take as much as you can use within its shelf keep duration.
Value Generation: Does this item generate value? An ambiguous question, allow me to explain. An example of this would be a rifle: while useful (has bullets), it generates a source of food. If this value is above that of what you traded, then you have a good trade.
Pre-Disaster Value: Sometimes this may be all you have to go on. Like taking forty kilos of gold, people on earth think something’s valuable if… they think something’s valuable. Circular, I know, but if you are able to further the perception that gold continues to be incredibly valuable and not a heavy hunk of metal, the more you can begin to trade for it. So, sometimes trading for useless items is worth it, if, and only if, you can find someone who thinks it valuable enough to trade for something much more valuable, say, a vehicle.
Rarity: How often will you run into this? The rarer the item, the more useful it can be in a trade, or just more useful, period. (Hunting rifle vs. Springfield 1903)
Deviating too much from this can put you at risk from angry fellow survivors, as well as at risk from your own poor decisions. Consider its worth to both the other party and you, what it can do, how long it will last be able to do that, and how much you need before making any decisions.
Here is a simple checklist to use for considering your item to trade for.
The scale is purely subjective, and is used merely as food for thought.
Use it to calculate the items ultimate value to you.
Remember, this is only a guide to allow you to obtain an at a glance worth of your item. Maintenance, current condition, and numerous other factors all play into the necessity of an item, but this is simply to provide a rough estimate.
Materiel Need: ____/10, value = N
Amount of Materiel: ____/10, value = M
Amount of Usage: ____/10, value = U
Shelf Keep: ____/10, value = K
Value Generation: ____/10, value = G
Pre-Disaster Value: ____/10, value = P
Rarity: ____/10, value=R
Once you have determined the above values plug it into the following equation for an idea of its value.
Total Value = Log [2^(√K)](NGUM^2+P^2)(R/2)^2
This comes out to a seven point scale of how much you need the object. It is complex math but I believe it to be fairly accurate to when computing total value.
Examples:
1) Single Sausage 500g
Need: 6/10, it’s food
Amount of Materiel: 2/10, One sausage
Amount of Usage: 1/10, you can only eat it once
Shelf Keep: 2/10, unless you have salt, 3 days tops
Value Generation: 1/10, mold and disease
Pre-Disaster Value: 2/10, it’s a Sausage!
Rarity: 2/10, as above, it’s a Sausage!
2.595 out of 7, useful but not terribly so.
2) 10 blocks of c4 (1.5kg each)
Need: 6/10, Good for booby-traps, powerful booby-traps
Amount of Materiel: 5/10, Enough to level a building
Amount of Usage: 2/10, Can be broken into on the blocks, single-use items.
Shelf Keep: 5/10, can sweat making it dangerous for use
Value Generation: 3/10, more useful devaluing something, like others or obstacles
Pre-Disaster Value: 6/10, C4 is a valuable commodity anyway.
Rarity: 7/10, The likelihood of stumbling across this again is not great.
4.735 Definitely Useful, try and trade for this
3) .50 calibre sniper rifle
Need: 8/10, Good long distance defense, hunting, and scouting.
Amount of Materiel: 2/10, Only one to go around
Amount of Usage: 2/10, Without ammo, can easily become just a metal tube.
Shelf Keep: 8/10, if properly stored, can be used a lot, given routine maintenance.
Value Generation: 5/10, Can easily take down a large animal for food.
Pre-Disaster Value: 7/10, High-powered military equipment. ‘Nuff said.
Rarity: 8/10, Probably one of less than a thousand.
4.622 Useful, try and trade for this, but be tentative as there is but one, and ammo is rare.
What They Want:
Ideally, you will want to give the other party the least valuable single item you have, and receive as many valuable items as you can in exchange. More than likely this will not happen. However, there are a few principles to consider before making the exchange on the table. Here the same concepts and principles apply.
However, the thinking must be switched. In the previous section the thinking was in credit, that is, how much will what you want benefit you? Now the switch is to think in debit, that is, how much is a particular item a drain on space and resources? How much is its Pre-Disaster value? How much is its chop-value (value of individual parts? How rare is it? Do not think of how much they will want it (that will be in section 4), but in how much you don’t.
Points to consider include:
Weight/Immobility: How heavy, or in case of wheeled items, immobile, the item is. W
Volume: How much floorspace the does item obstruct? V
Value Generation: Does it generate a resource, like a genny making electricity? G
Amount of Usage: How much is it manually (labor. maintenance) used, and how much can it be used? U
Chop Value: What is the combined individual values of each of the items parts? C
Pre-Disaster Value: As above. P
Rarity: As above. R
The formula is a 5 point scale, and should be considered negative.
Ln [(WV)^(3)/(2^(√C)(G/U+√(P^2+R^2)))]^(3/4)
Let’s take a look at some examples:
1) An Oscillating Space Heater
Weight: 4/10 Not heavy, but not that light either
Volume: 2/10 Relatively compact size
Value Generation: 6/10 Generates much needed heat
Amount of Usage: 3/10 High energy cost, and not much use without power
Chop Value: 4/10 Heating element, cord, and that’s about it
Pre Disaster Value: 5/10 Fairly expensive, but not exorbitantly so.
Rarity: 7/10 Likely few left and working
2.025 It’s there, but not a huge detriment to your colony.
2) 50cm Japanese Porcelain Doll in Glass Case
Weight: 3/10 Light and hollow.
Volume: 6/10 50cm tall and a glass case?
Value Generation: 1/10 It’s, um… nice.
Amount of Usage: 1/10 Not much use I am afraid.
Chop Value: 1/10 None whatsoever
Pre Disaster Value: 2/10 not of much value, except to a collector.
Rarity: 9/10 Maybe one of a kind
4.317 Avoid it if possible.
3) A Generator
Weight: 4/10 Requires 1-2 people to lift, wheeled for convenience.
Volume: 4/10 Occupies 2.5m3
Value Generation: 10/10 Powers your base, Awesome!
Amount of Usage: 4/10 No manual labor, but needs gas.
Chop Value: 7/10 Various parts can be scavenged
Pre Disaster Value: 5/10 Good in times of emergency. Like, now!
Rarity: 6/10 Only found in main buildings of colonies.
3.11 A pain to lug around, but a necessity at times
Surprised that a space heater had a better score than a generator? Don’t be. Remember this 5 point debit scale does not necessarily measure the usefulness of the item, but rather its space:gain burden. Big items are a burden, and take up a lot of space, making you stop and think whether or not you want to make a bid in that serious investment.
Material Comparison:
The general idea is that the end of trade should be: Your_new_stuffs_value/((7/5)Your_old_stuffs_value)=√X
As long as X is greater than 1, then you, generally speaking, are better off, and the greater it is, the more so.
Break down any items you think need to be. Look at itemized and bundled values. Compare among models and production. Play with the formula numbers above to generate “what if?” scenarios among their goods and yours. Consider best and worst case scenarios, but weigh the more likely more heavily. Look at its parts, a neon sign may be no good to you, but the transformer may be exactly what you’re looking for. Browse his selection, and know yours. Bartering is a game of knowledge, knowing as much about your stock as his, and what each can offer is critical to a bountiful parlay between two parties.
The Art of Parlay
There are no magic words, item or technique that can net what you want every time. If you are going to trust something, trust your head, heart, or gut, not the guy at the other end of the table. Remember three commodities that will always be on the table, your location, your people, and yourself. If you are unsuccessful at deceiving your barter-buddy, the stakes may shoot way, way up and one of these things could be in jeopardy.
This is the meat of the barter. Like a poker game, the play is not about the pot or even the cards your opponents are holding. If you make moves to cause the other players to think their cards are worthless and yours are worth most, after which they back out, the value of the cards becomes irrelevant. The money netted is just gravy to sweeten the victory. Yet he with more money can stand to do more, to put more on the table, to wager more, and to last longer. The only way to beat your opponent is through boldness, contingency, and deception (and luck doesn’t hurt either).
There are numerous approaches to be undertaken when bartering for goods, suggested types for analysis in this article include: honest, shark-like, deceptive, defensive, aggressive, statistical, etc. This article will take a look at all the styles under normal trade conditions, but is not a catch all. As with any guide written, there will be exceptions, and the guide will be useless. As stated before, ultimately trust only your head, your heart, and your gut.
Honest: Provided the trader is aiming to screw you out of everything you have, this is the most respectable and, ideally, perfect, approach to have when dealing with any exchange. Having a strong sense of fairness (though not necessarily naïveté) and morals, he is straight to all he encounters, and he expects the same. He does even trades for fair prices. Probably the least likely scenario to happen, and the most stupid approach to take initially with any unknown party, as they can take all you have before you know it.
Shark-Like: Prime negotiator, starts extremely low to negotiate to a lower price than normal. Threatens his power of withdrawal liberally, reminding the trading party how much they will be losing. They jump from one item to the next, leaving no time to for recovery from a deal. Think used-car salesman and world champ poker player rolled into one. Do not attempt unless you can pull it off.
Deceptive: The con man’s here. Showers their bartering partner with items in exchange for something, like giving “all” (1/3) their canned food for a generator. Operates solely on crooked numbers, and straightens them only in his favor. Realizes that often, if on home turf, the guest to the parlay has no idea what is stored in the Deceptive’s colony, and exploits this fact. However, loose lips can cost lives, as one person with a blabber-mouth who’s not on board for the con can add a whole new spin to the game.
Defensive: This man barters only for what he and his colony needs; nothing more or less. Tries for fair prices, and likely will never back down from the table unless needs are met. Has some sense of prices and appeals to others’, and will attempt to collaborate for a deal or a workaround at fair prices. Typically quiet, but demanding if necessary, think the honest type with tight lips.
Aggressive: Looks to clean the trader out of whatever he has with whatever is in the Aggressive’s stash. Rash, arrogant, threatening, and more likely to receive more items, but also more likely to be conned or withdrawn. Will not back away from the table, and often will not stop ‘til he has what he wants. Think Shark-Like without as much restraint or brains.
Statistical: Uses numbers to make his argument, applying the same scale to both his side and that opposite him. Will back away from the table if the numbers don’t compute, and will not pursue any further. Not a smooth-talker by a long shot, and not necessarily the best approach to have, but it holds both parties to an absolute, non-negotiable, and indisputable standard, and will have little tolerance for anything but quid pro quo.
That whatever your approach is, there are two more home court advantages: if traders come to you, they don’t necessarily know all that you have, and, because of this, they gamble anytime you walk away. Better yet, if you attempt to walk away with something they want, the items price may shoot up as well.
Now, the general scenario of typical bartering has been covered, however, what is to be understood is that, when bartering without force, there are tripolar extremes:
You want it, he wants it.
You want it, he will let you essentially just have it.
You want it, and he knows it.
Each of these has its own separate dynamic, and must be carried out carefully to secure the item.
Taking each in turn there are, generally speaking, best case and worst case scenarios that can develop, and few in between.
You Want It, He Wants It.
Best Case: Not quite as bad as you would think, probably is asking for fair or a little more than fair compensation for the item in question. Be sure to know your stock thoroughly, as this becomes the bargaining chips you have to work with.
Worst Case: He will never give it up. Period, done, goodbye.
You Want It, He Will Let You Just Have It.
Best Case: You get a really good deal: he has no use for it, you do, “Here ya go,” “Thanks!”
Worst Case: There is a reason that he may not disclose to you why he does not want it. Often a defective or nonworking item, be sure to get the policy of “Try Before You Buy” with the item.
You Want It, and He Knows It.
Best Case: As above
Worst Case: “So you’re pretty desperate, huh?” “Yeah” “Your water truck” “A minute ago you said half of our perishable food” “No I didn’t” “Yes, you did” Without superior firepower, good luck arguing that one.
Finally, to address the last issue of violence:
It is said that “Diplomacy and Violence both solve problems. Violence is just quicker.” This is true. Any trading party that comes to your area is likely heavily armed and may stage a takeover, or worse yet, may be an ambush party posing as a trading party, resulting in the capture of members of your colony and any goods or weapons they may have. I cannot advise you to this capacity, I can only warn you. My solution is that your trade party members wear an explosive belt with a deadman switch, but some consider that cold. As before I can only warn you to the dangers of such things, and as each case is different, cannot elaborate due to circumstances far too numerous to list. All I can say are two, highly ineffectual words: “Be Careful”
Afterword:
Congratulations! You made it! I know, each article I type is like JK Rowling’s Harry Potter Series, each gets longer and longer. I, LLukeL, personally want to thank you for your time and effort reading this, and hope this aids you in any trade you do. May your endeavors be fruitful even in disaster. Thank you again for reading this, and I wish you all good luck in event of Z-Day.
