Ever watched a disaster movie? Sure you have. Remember the point where the media releases the truth about what is happening, be it alien invasion, biological or chemical attack?

Everyone runs around screaming, and you get a montage of people looting stores, driving recklessly and crashing all over the place, fights breaking out, things like that. Kind of like the first two minutes of this video:



Any kind of severe weather warning sees bread, milk, eggs and other short-life items go flying off the shelves. And forget going shopping if there is a legitimate disaster. People will kill each other for the last bottle of water in the store.


The following link is to show us what happens during disasters. This article is about the H1N1 virus. It was small scale, and it was still showing up. Imagine Z-Day.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5258923/Swine-flu-supermarkets-prepare-for-panic-buying.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8254669.stm This new link is very typical of what starving people will do for food. And this was for FLOUR.

A new addition to the page, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010279423_apwavaccinetheft.html documents just how desparate some people will get even before real trouble starts. This woman stole the flu vaccine, either for herself, friends, family, or simply for profit.

This page is intended to show that if anything, The Panic in movies is underplayed. If your plan involves waiting until disaster is right on your doorstep, then you will get caught up in The Panic, and most likely killed.

Most new member plans involve the following:

• Waiting until the last minute to prepare
• Going to Wal-Mart/other supermarket, the gun store, and/or the gas station
• Driving out of town as fast as possible

This is your first plan. And unsurprisingly, it is EVERYONE'S first plan. So if everyone is heading to the same locations, the chances of The Panic starting there are incredibly high.





This is how people act when they are SHOPPING. You think it will be any better when they are trying to get food during a national emergency?

Your plan should involve preparation beforehand, and you should move to a safe place (your BOL) either before OR after The Panic hits your area.



These first few stages happen over days and weeks. You might notice them in other people before you do in yourself. Everyone seems subdued, less eye contact, fewer smiles. THIS is the time to begin your final preparations. Whilst others are simply stocking up on three weeks worth of groceries rather than one, or buying a gun "Just In Case", you should have done this months ago, and all you need to do is make sure all your batteries are charged, you have plenty of fuel for your vehicle, and everything is packed and ready to go at a moments notice. You may have even noticed it lately, with the Swine Flu paranoia.

The second stage is where you should be either Bugging Out, or Bugging In. (For new members, this means running to a pre-determined safe destination, your Bug Out Location (BOL) or fortifying your existing location and preparing to ride out the danger.) What you choose to do will be based on your own preparations and locations. I have no way to recommend either course of action, since each situation is unique.

The third and fourth stages happen quite close together, and there is often only a slight discernible difference between the two. Third stage people are more visibly scared, but can still be seen holding it together. But as soon as they cross that line, they are a danger to themselves and others. They are acting on instinct, rather than logic, and making decisions without really considering the consequences. It happens almost like a domino effect when in a crowd. One person will snap, then those close to them, then the others nearest, and so on, like a chain reaction. Ever wonder why a protest can so easily turn into a riot? This kind of herd mentality. He's scared, so I should be scared. He's angry, I should be angry. It's a self preservation technique, but will not serve you well on Z day.



The difference between the last two stages is noticeable and obvious, though from the descriptions it seems as though the two are the same. However, terror spurs someone into action, usually either running or fighting. Dread paralyses a person, their ability to act frozen by a constant thought that the next action they take will lead to their death.

At this point you should be either well on your way to the BOL, or have secured your current location and are now remaining quiet and observant. Once The Panic happens in your area, it will last somewhere between a day and a week, depending on the population size. Don't get caught up in it, let it burn itself out. If you need to relocate after that, it will be a lot safer to do so.

Think I'm wrong?

Try a quick search for WalMart on the site. I'll wait.

See? And on the 25th of August, 2009, there were 220 hits for the word WalMart. That's about the same number for the word "revolver" (294) and we have a whole section dedicated to guns. 7th of September, it's 231 to 301.

The WalMart plan is a very popular first thought, amongst new members, and non-members alike. If you have this link because you had the same thought in your thread or plan, don't worry. Almost everyone does.

I have been accused of being a fan of numbers to prove a point, and to save time, I have saved the calculations from a recent argument about this topic.

The theory runs like this: The town with a WalMart in has a population of about 15,000. The news breaks about a biological threat. Now we are going to try this calculation with several different proportions. 5%, 10%, 25% and 50% of the population heading for the same place at the same time.

We are also going to ignore the traffic nightmare that would ensue, and assume that miracle of miracles, they all arrive safely.

If 50% of the town tries to Panic buy, then 7,500 people will be turning up. Know what that looks like?



Like a full house at the Madison Mallards Ballpark.

And all of them will be fighting to get as much as they can. Sounds like fun.

But that's the largest percentage, so it can't be as that bad if only 25% turn up, right?



That's the capacity of Ebbsfleet United FC. Or how many people go to see an exhibition on leprosy in a month. Think about that. 3,750 people went to see a leprosy exhibit, and you expect them to NOT Panic Buy when there is a genuine emergency?

Down to the low end now. 10% of the town, 1,500 people.



Well that's the same number who turned out to hear Hilary campaign at Penn State. Are you willing to try and fight all those people for food?

Finally, 5% A mere 750 people. Fancy your chances?



This is a Dutch meeting to celebrate 400 years of Dutch people in New York. Notice that between the pillars on the left, you can see that the room is actually twice as big as the photo implies. So take the people you can see, and double the crowd. That is what you will be facing.

Now that you have an idea of the potential crowds, imagine this: you turn up first, and convince those in the store to lock the doors and prevent looters. Then 750, scared, hungry, and now ANGRY people arrive. Does this end well?

Or the other end of the scale, you turn up just AFTER the crowds have dispersed. What do you expect to find?







The third and last choice. You arrive just as the crowd becomes a mob. As before, scared and angry people just trying to keep themselves and their loved ones alive. How well do you think they will treat strangers competing for the same items? And how well do you think you will hold up when fighting back? Against the second one? The third? The fourth?




As background, my first job during college was in a major food retailer, on stock control. I did this for four years. So I have a little insight here.

Take a look at the floorplan above. Only the green section is the edible food. Everything else is inedible. So for a start, the "massive" stores don't actually contain that much food.

But how little is there? Well I was sent a few examples of stores which had their supply lines cut off. Most agreed that within 48 hours of a missed delivery, the shelves were bare. And this was under normal conditions: regular customer numbers, regular purchasing choices.

Quote provided by Freelancer47, talking to a store manager:

"Dude, perfect example was the snowstorm of Dec 08-Jan 09. We had food, water, booze, medicine, etc... to last for a good few weeks with constant truck shipment resupply. When the road's were in-accessible (I.E. Seattle WA wasn't prepared for a Snow-Storm of that level, King County WA has only 27 snow plow's at its disposal for a snow storm at any given time) we had NO resupply for 2 weeks. We were bare bones at about the 2 & 1/2 day mark."

He also provided another anecdote from the Obama election, where he ran out of alcohol in the space of an hour. When you consider that though this was a celebration, the buying conditions were similar to The Panic, albeit a subset of the products, and it shows just how little there is in one of these stores: if people were motivated to go there en masse, and grab essential food items, the store would be empty in as little as an hour.

But let us indulge the fantasies of our WalMart planners: the store has been freshly stocked, then abandoned. They have the run of it all to themselves. So how long will their utopia feed them for?

Well let's start with the fresh food. After one week, it will be rotten. So with the exception of irradiated produce (stockage will vary by state and supplier, but usually it is only a small proportion, since the public is distrustful of anything which has been exposed to radiation, no matter how safe it actually is) after 7 days, all the fresh produce will be rotted.

Frozen food? Well that will last for up to 24 hours after the power to the freezers has gone out. Whilst most places will have backup generators, they are typically only rated to last for 36-48 hours. So that's a maximum of 72 hours for the frozen food.

So that leaves the packaged food and canned food. It's a wide range of dates for this. However, most dry food will last about 6-12 months, and cans will last for about 2 years before they roll past the Best Before date. So the only question is which will run out first, food or time? Well, one pallet of baked beans is a dozen layers, with 144 cans per layer. If you can survive on one can per meal, then a single pallet will last you 576 days. 1.57 years.

That means that if you are in there in small numbers, you could potentially survive for 2 years, providing (a) you are there in small numbers (b) you don't mind getting creative as your options dwindle (c) the store is left intact.

Caveat C, the store being left intact, is the biggest problem, especially since we have shown that Panic will make people try and stock up on as much as they can, that the store can be stripped of all it's goods in as little as an hour, and that the sheer number of people is likely to make it impossible and dangerous for you to get anything yourself.

So, are you rethinking that WalMart plan yet?

Keep on Truckin'? I don't think so...

Newly added, Panic: Fuel section. This one is for all those who want to Mad Max it, or believed the survivors in Resident Evil: Extinction were realistic.

Fuel goes bad. No way around it. It happens over time, and it happens in three ways. Evaporation, Oxidation and Contamination.

Evaporation is what makes gasoline such a good fuel. It is volatile. But if left sitting, the best parts of the fuel just disappear into the air. It will be safe to use in the engine, but you will get a slightly worse performance. Evaporation is the least worst of the three.

Oxidation, quite simply a reaction with the oxygen in the air to form new compounds. These compounds suck. They are trash. Quite literally, some of them become solids that will sit at the bottom of the container, like lumps of gum in a urinal. You do not want to put these in your engine. Oxidised fuel is quite easy to spot: it goes dark, like whisky, then rum, and smells bad. Not the worst of the three, but for survivors, the most common bump. No storage container is completely full. There is air inside to allow for expansion and contraction due to temperature fluctuations. So this one is inevitable.

Contamination is the worst of the three, because it is often quite hard to spot. The most common contaminent is water. It gets in through cracks in the storage container. Because both are clear liquids, you can't really tell unless you know what to look for: put a small amount of fuel in a clear container (plastic cup, glass, lid, etc) and leave it to settle for a minute or two. You will see the fuel sitting on top of the water. Any mechanic will tell you that water in an engine is bad news. Other more obvious contaminents include rust, soil, really any dirt.

Any of these is bad, but worse still is a dry tank.

How likely is that? Well depending on the population of the area, and the amount of Panic surrounding the impending disaster, it can be very likely indeed.

Cities will suffer more than rural stations, because of the sheer number of customers. There are typically three types of fuel on offer; regular, premium and diesel. Each of these will need two, sometimes three deliveries a day. At 30,000 litres (7,925 US gallons) per delivery, sounds a lot, right? But that is only 4,500 cars a day if you assume an average of 20 litres (5.2 US gallons) per car. 187 people per hour. With 16 pumps (the largest in the UK have 20 or more), assuming 5 minutes per customer, that is 192 cars an hour.

So a run on one fuel type might cause a shortage. But with three fuel types and an equal usage, that is enough for three days, right?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4136886.ece

This was the second fuel shortage in 2008. They had advance warnings it was happening, they had plenty of reserves on hand, and they STILL ran out. People were Panic buying fuel, taking up to three times their normal purchase. The supply chain was simply not fast enough to cope. Stations were running out within 24 hours of resupply, of ALL fuels.

In a zombie outbreak, people will be buying more than they usually do. It will start unconsciously, just as with the food. "I'll get a full tank instead of half, Just In Case", or "Better fill up today instead of Friday, Just In Case". As the situation becomes more obvious, so will the rationalisation for consumption. And the worst part is that the resupply will not be coming when people need it most to try and flee the populated areas. The drivers have families, and typically live in more rural areas. Why would they risk going into the city at that point?

But what about rural filling stations? They don't get as many customers, so surely they would have some left? Well, maybe. But the companies that run them are pretty slick at judging how much they will use based on how much they did use in the past, and keep the resupply to a similarly tight schedule as in the city. Either they will deliver every day, but only a small amount, or for the really rural places, deliver once a week.

So it's a week old, right? No. Refineries don't make it and put it straight in the tankers. It goes into holding tanks. That way they can ride out any supply problems. The gas you put in your car could be up to two months old.

Occasionally, you will hear stories about a "bad batch" of gas. Most of the time it has been contaminated rather than oxidised, but occasionally it will happen. One of the holding tanks at the refinery was left standing a little longer than it should have been, or it had been drained and not refilled, allowing more oxidation to occur than normal.

But still, rural stations will possibly have some fuel left. And it might be okay to use. The final question is: can you access it? All the pumps are driven by electric motors. If the power is still on, do you know how to work the fuel cutoff system inside that controls the pumps? But with the Panic hitting, the power might well be out. So do you know how to get into the fuel tanks manually? And can you identify which is the correct fuel type for your vehicle? If you can do all that, can you siphon it from the underground tanks? (You can't just suck on a hose and then put the end in a container. That only works if gravity is on your side, which it isn't here.)

Convoys might well be how they do it in movies, but real life will get in your way if you try it yourself.

Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads...

Sadly, you do need roads. Most vehicles can't, or won't travel in even mild off-road conditions. Even fewer can do so fully laden with your supplies. Imagine getting bogged down in mud, twenty miles from your BOL. Do you stay with your gear, or grab the minimum and go on foot?

Anyone who live in or near a city will tell you what a nightmare traffic is during rush hour. And that is a small percentage of car owners. Try and picture what it would look like if everyone was escaping at the same time? I'm sure you have seen Independence Day. Or 28 Days Later (the scene in the tunnel is how all the New York tunnels will look) or pretty much every disaster movie.

So if you try and drive away during The Panic, you will be going nowhere. And all the time you are sat in the car, the zombies are working their way through these canned meals. Yep, the side windows are easily broken, and the passengers are strapped in. If the traffic is bad enough, there may not be any room to open the doors and climb out. Hope you have a sun-roof.

Finally, one more car point: during The Panic, there are likely to be scared, deperate individuals everywhere. Many of these will be armed. Keeping your car out of sight during this period will help ensure that it remains your car. But how are you meant to drive it and keep it out of sight? You aren't. Park it in the garage. Bolt your doors and windows. Bug In, that is what your supplies are for. Ride out this mess, and you should have a much better chance of surviving the journey to your BOL.