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Discussion: I'm Not Sure I Buy This

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Jamie_Danger_Snow	I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 5:20 PM EDT Okay, first let me say no offense intended as the site says noone is an expert and this is just my opinion on the subject. Everything in The Panic is all very well researched and thoughtful, but I am not sure it's totally accurate for one reason, the zombie virus in all incarnations that I have seen has had a nearly 100% infection rate, which i believe would change the dynamic of the panic scenario completely. depending on the start place and time of the infection I believe it might spread so fast and completely that communication about the infection might not reach the areas in time. So the wal-mart scenario might not be so nonviable if you are located near the epicenter. Post reply 3 out of 3 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you? Keyword tags: None
PedroAsani	1. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 5:46 PM EDT \| Post edited: Aug 22 2009, 5:50 PM EDT This has come up a few times in various wordings, so I'm going to repeat it here, then add the numbers onto the page itself. The original town in question was said to have a population of about 15,000. The poster thought that this was small enough that they would be able to take and hold the WalMart without significant incident. But even a small town such as this will have this problem. Imagine is just 40% of the population had the same idea. (Board postings suggest closer to 95% of people have WalMart, CostCo or Insert-big-brand-name-here as their first thought, which led to the creation of this page) That's 6,000 people. All trying to get into the same place, which despite it's size, does not hold sufficient food to sustain that many. That's why they often get four or five deliveries a day. But what if it's just 20%? Well 3,000 people is not really better. Based on the average square footage of a WalMart-size store, the floorspace devoted to food, and the needs of the average person for a year, you can sustain about 400 people. (1,095 meals a year, per person.) That's 2.67%, so either the WalMart plan needs to be something nobody thinks of (which the board has shown is not the case) or the virus infects 98% of people overnight. Just so that's clear, in order to reasonably avoid a Panic, either the entire town needs to break from natural human behaviour (unlikely) or be devoured without warning. contd. Post reply 1 out of 1 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?
PedroAsani	2. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 5:48 PM EDT \| Post edited: Aug 22 2009, 5:50 PM EDT Now assume a reasonable incubation time of eight hours. Let's make the zombies aggressive runners. You said the epicentre of infection, which starts as one zombie. It arrives just as the town goes to bed. Let's say 11:30. And everyone gets up for work at 7:30. Well that is an eight hour window to go un-noticed, but that means the one zombie has to do all the work. He has to infect 14,700 people in eight hours. 1,837,5 people an hour, or 30 people a minute. Now 30 people a minute would be difficult to do in a crowded mall. When each of them is sleeping in a locked house, even 4 to a house, he needs to visit a house every 8 seconds. So the idea of a zombie outbreak springing up overnight just can't happen. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
lordreven6	3. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:17 PM EDT what jamie is saying is that most of those people who would go to walmart would already be zombies by the time they knew about zombies. all simulations show that the higher the pop the faster the infection rate. and since zombies rarely "half ass it" most people affected will already be dead.. with this in mind of an "instant" zombieism from infection a high pop town of 50k could easily go down in 7 mins( a town of 20,00 12 mins) so if you were quick, you could easily make it to Walmart.(if the simulations are anything to go by) Post reply Do you find this valuable?
Akerris	4. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:22 PM EDT "what jamie is saying is that most of those people who would go to walmart would already be zombies by the time they knew about zombies. all simulations show that the higher the pop the faster the infection rate. and since zombies rarely "half ass it" most people affected will already be dead.. with this in mind of an "instant" zombieism from infection a high pop town of 50k could easily go down in 7 mins( a town of 20,00 12 mins) so if you were quick, you could easily make it to Walmart.(if the simulations are anything to go by)" I think Pedro is trying to say that any sort of zombie scenario makes walmart a bad idea. Pedro likes numbers, and he uses them to make a page to attempt to convince Noobs of their folly. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	5. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:22 PM EDT No infection is instant. They all have an incubation period, which is why 28DL is such a hated piece of crap. A virus takes hours, sometimes days before symptoms show. And if you are using even the most basic simulations, no infection can spread through biting in minutes. Aerosol dispersal, yes. But until there is a zombie-virus-bomb potential, I'm discounting it. Even if you believe that an infection could appear and spread overnight, it could not do so everywhere. So staying away from the WalMart plan is still sound advice. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
lordreven6	6. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:29 PM EDT actually it is very possible.. look at it this way: you turn into a zombie when you die. so when a zombie rips out a part of you youll turn in seconds(almost instant). also we dont know if a zombie injects you with a toxin that can kill you in seconds and then you turn into a zombie. blowfish toxin anyone? Post reply Do you find this valuable?
lordreven6	7. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:30 PM EDT http://www.squidtalk.com/zombiesim.htm use which ones you want. (just remember to adjust the population) Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	8. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:30 PM EDT "Pedro likes numbers, and he uses them to make a page to attempt to convince Noobs of their folly." Words are soft and can be pummelled into different meanings by a skilled tongue. Numbers are hard. You can cheat with them but you cannot change their nature. Three is three, and you cannot persuade it to be four. ~ Mavolio Bent No simulation that runs in a java window can model something as complex as viral transmission. Places like the CDC and Strategic Health Authority spend millions developing complex modelling to try and predict things like the spread of flu. But with some rough estimates of both size and behaviour, you can simulate how a town of people might act in a crisis. And disappointingly, they always head for the shops. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
Akerris	9. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:33 PM EDT "actually it is very possible.. look at it this way: you turn into a zombie when you die. so when a zombie rips out a part of you youll turn in seconds(almost instant). also we dont know if a zombie injects you with a toxin that can kill you in seconds and then you turn into a zombie. blowfish toxin anyone?" This conjecture is full of assumptions like you come back to life immediately. No known virus works in seconds, only toxins, molds etc. work that fast. Instant reanimation would have to be caused by something, either a virus, parasite, nanovirus, or pathogenic bacteria. Don't speak in absolutes unless you are absolutely sure. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
MajorDamage	10. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:34 PM EDT the only twist I would like to inject here: what if the 'infection' is already spread into the populace via a 'vaccine' that has a negative effect (raging fast zombie spreading via bite w/short incubation like < 1 hr) on .01% of the population at large. Pedro, crunch some #'s on that!! The larger the city, the bigger an epicenter but through the wonders of the rural vaccine program, it's there too. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	11. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:35 PM EDT "actually it is very possible.. look at it this way: you turn into a zombie when you die. so when a zombie rips out a part of you youll turn in seconds(almost instant). also we dont know if a zombie injects you with a toxin that can kill you in seconds and then you turn into a zombie. blowfish toxin anyone?" That is an oversimplification of a very complex biological mechanism. And a toxin does not and cannot make a zombie. Reason for this is that toxins cause cardiac and respiratory arrest within seconds. Blood is the mechanism for the delivery of whatever makes the zombie, and stopping the heart, directly or indirectly by stopping the lungs interferes with that. I suggest you read up on the biology sections of this site, then come back. In order to debate zombie physiology and infection vectors, it helps to have the background knowledge of biology. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
lordreven6	12. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:37 PM EDT please also rember that ANYTHING is possible. i was speaking of an absolute POSSIBLILTY, for it is always possible. so you can use absolutes when you talk about things that surely COULD happen. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
lordreven6	13. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:39 PM EDT and pedro i assure you the blowfish toxin DOES make zombies.( its just not currently infectious) thats how the first zombies in haiti were made. while not working in seconds it does create zombies. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	14. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:43 PM EDT "the only twist I would like to inject here: what if the 'infection' is already spread into the populace via a 'vaccine' that has a negative effect (raging fast zombie spreading via bite w/short incubation like < 1 hr) on .01% of the population at large. Pedro, crunch some #'s on that!! The larger the city, the bigger an epicenter but through the wonders of the rural vaccine program, it's there too." Done. UK population of 62 million. 0.01% = 6,200 people. For an entire country that's not that large. A Sub 1hr incubation is still a little on the short side. Norovirus, the vomiting bug that often makes the news for food poisoning scares, takes a couple of days to show symptoms. Ebola has an eight hour window, and that is considered to be one of the fastest infections. But let's halve that and say 4 hours. Those 6,200 get the jump on an average of 6 people before being killed (health workers, security, etc). The new infected are treated in a hospital. 4 hours later they all attack staff around them, and are again killed, only this time they have managed an average of 10 people each. That's 372,000 new infected ready to spring up after eight hours. But we are still at 0.6% of the population. It is difficult to conceive of a truly overnight zombification scenario with no warning at all. Bottom line is, unless the entirety of one of these secretive populations is infected and simultaneously migrates, we will have warnings aplenty. Warnings means fear, fear means Panic. DO NOT GO TO WALMART. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	15. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:48 PM EDT "and pedro i assure you the blowfish toxin DOES make zombies.( its just not currently infectious) thats how the first zombies in haiti were made. while not working in seconds it does create zombies." Blowfish toxin was used in the first rituals of zombification. It slowed the nervous system of the victim, drugging them into a kind of stupor. But that is not the zombie we are talking about. Haitian zombification was used as punishment. Someone wronged you, you had the witch doctor make them zombies, and then they did your chores. I am not scared of them. They don't eat flesh, and I could use someone to do my laundry. But a toxin kills. By definition. It is toxic. Viruses, bacteria, parasites do not intentionally kill their host. They use them to breed, and in doing so have adverse effects. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
lordreven6	16. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:50 PM EDT just remeber this thread is stating its probably a good idea to head to walmart IF zombieism is instant. so any statements saying that it wont be instant are not welcome on this thread. Post reply 1 out of 5 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?
PedroAsani	17. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 6:52 PM EDT "just remeber this thread is stating its probably a good idea to head to walmart IF zombieism is instant. so any statements saying that it wont be instant are not welcome on this thread." Unless you are the OP, you have no real say as to what is and isn't welcome anywhere. Post reply 2 out of 2 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?
MajorDamage	19. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 7:30 PM EDT Ok, maybe .05% of the pop or .08% AND they start spreading through fluid contact over a few days (in hospital and public health depts) before someone detects the pattern. how about that (.08 x 60 hrs) and remember, everywhere gets a few with larger #'s in the larger pop areas Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	20. RE: I'm Not Sure I Buy This Aug 22 2009, 7:38 PM EDT "the zombie virus in all incarnations that I have seen has had a nearly 100% infection rate" By that I take it you mean that almost everyone had been converted by the time the movie started. Trouble is, a zombie plague would not just spring up like in the movies. All diseases have a starting point, a patient zero. Sometimes that can be several people, but they are all referred to as patient zero. From them, it will spread as quickly as the incubation time, quarantine, travel time and other factors allow. Even with something that is more virulent than Ebola Zaire, you are still looking at a global spread being counted in weeks and months, not minutes and hours. Even with the "dormant infection" idea, it would be triggered sporadically. A small percentage would turn first, getting bigger and bigger, with some people only turning long after the main mass has finished. Imagine a graph, with time along the bottom, and along the side is "percentage likely to turn." The graph line would be an upside-down U, or a bell-curve. Few people turn early, then some more as time passes, then the main mass all at once, then a handful of latecomers, then finally a few stragglers. So the ones that turn early would trigger the warnings for everyone else. Even if it was known to be inevitable for most of the population, Panic would still ensue, with everyone praying that they were immune. Even with an instant, spontaneous zombification, there would be warning. So the overnight scenario just couldn't happen. Post reply 2 out of 2 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?

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