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Discussion: Incorrect assumptions

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IanKaplan	Incorrect assumptions Feb 17 2010, 9:55 PM EST The fuel math is wrong because it assumes that each pump is always being used. Post reply Do you find this valuable? Keyword tags: Fuel Incorrect Assumptions
PedroAsani	1. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 18 2010, 5:23 AM EST "The fuel math is wrong because it assumes that each pump is always being used. " Quite right, it does. That is because the numbers are averages from data I found in various places. For example, the 30,000 litres for delivery is based on the average size of a fuel truck, and despite appearances, they come in a variety of sizes. The number of deliveries I based on several garages near me of various sizes with a wide range of pumps. Some had 8, some 12, and the largest had 24. The average fuel consumption was from usage statistics in both the US and UK. Weekly consumption worked out at 10.4 gallons, and most people make 2 trips a week. The timings I got from how long it takes to fill up and pay depending on time of day, how much you fill up, which station you use, etc. I kept notes for a month. Yes, I do my own research for these things. So whilst the maths for this will seem to show a station that is in constant use at all pumps, it is an aggregate of various data chunks, and as such doesn't behave as you would expect a real-world station which would have peaks and troughs, light fill-ups and heavy ones. Post reply 3 out of 3 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?
RisingTide	2. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 18 2010, 9:33 AM EST I think based on the data you have collected Pedro is a great theory and it can be tested for accuracy, you just have to wait for some type of panic big or small ( large amounts of snow, earthquakes, drought ext..) something that makes people panic buy in large amounts. Every variable cant be calculated of course, you cant predict that the tanker truck going to refuel the station got caught in traffic that day, or that the pump broke due to a faulty part. You could get into non linear equations to help with the unknowns but you would still leave out something most likely. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
StrykerPez	3. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 18 2010, 3:09 PM EST As related to real-world panic situations, this estimate comes really close. Read stories about Katrina or the storms in the Midwest and East.... you will find many accounts of empty gas stations or gas stations locked down by police. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
IanKaplan	4. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 19 2010, 10:37 PM EST "Quite right, it does. That is because the numbers are averages from data I found in various places. For example, the 30,000 litres for delivery is based on the average size of a fuel truck, and despite appearances, they come in a variety of sizes. The number of deliveries I based on several garages near me of various sizes with a wide range of pumps. Some had 8, some 12, and the largest had 24. The average fuel consumption was from usage statistics in both the US and UK. Weekly consumption worked out at 10.4 gallons, and most people make 2 trips a week. The timings I got from how long it takes to fill up and pay depending on time of day, how much you fill up, which station you use, etc. I kept notes for a month. Yes, I do my own research for these things. So whilst the maths for this will seem to show a station that is in constant use at all pumps, it is an aggregate of various data chunks, and as such doesn't behave as you would expect a real-world station which would have peaks and troughs, light fill-ups and heavy ones." You are still assuming that in normal life, each pump is always in use. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
Carnack	5. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 12:31 AM EST "You are still assuming that in normal life, each pump is always in use." In a SHTF scenario most of the time they WOULD be in use. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	6. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 7:42 AM EST "You are still assuming that in normal life, each pump is always in use." No, it's an average. Each station that gets daily deliveries eats through them each day. So if they get 30,000 litres a day, then they are going through 1,250 every hour. But real world says that some hours are going to be heavier, and some lighter. The calculations are the same in The Panic. Whilst I have averaged them out, I acknowledge that in the real world, not every pump will be used. However, the fuel will still be used up at roughly the same rate. So that means that customers will be filling up with more than average. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
Akerris	7. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 7:47 AM EST "I think based on the data you have collected Pedro is a great theory and it can be tested for accuracy, you just have to wait for some type of panic big or small ( large amounts of snow, earthquakes, drought ext..) something that makes people panic buy in large amounts. Every variable cant be calculated of course, you cant predict that the tanker truck going to refuel the station got caught in traffic that day, or that the pump broke due to a faulty part. You could get into non linear equations to help with the unknowns but you would still leave out something most likely. " I was in, and still am, Snowmageddon 2010. Walmarts were picked dry, and a lot of stores closed. ATM's started to run out of cash in some places, and there were stories of people who couldn't get access to daily needs. For the most part things were ok. Believe it or not but one of the last places to close in a disaster is a bar in the city, in fact you'll probably find it full. In a crippling situation like a snowstorm, gas wasn't an issue, but good luck finding a snow shovel or salt anwhere in the state of Maryland. @Pedro, you should consider this as another part of the panic, where people aren't trying to escape but deal with the problems of hunkering down. I'd be happy to tell you all about my SnOMG experiences. Post reply 1 out of 1 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?
MajorDamage	8. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 7:49 AM EST or you can use what's going on in Greece right now: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fuel-shortage-hits-Greece-as-apf-1182321877.html?x=0&.v=3 or you can wait for the sequel: EU The Implosion Post reply Do you find this valuable?
timberrattler	9. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 8:08 AM EST @IanKaplan, You've chosen to question an article here that has received more scutiny than any other. Many, myself included have questioned "The Panic" and went over it with a fine toothed comb. Nobody gets put under a microscope more than Pedro. This page has been vetted many times. That being said its also the most accurate vision of a panic I've ever read...anywhere. I honestly wish it would be slapped on every Hollywood producers desk before they decide to make a disaster movie. Thats my little rant for the day. Now I've got to find a way to keep that damn limeys head from getting too big from what I just said. Post reply 1 out of 1 found this valuable. Do you find this valuable? Do you?
Akerris	10. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 8:12 AM EST "or you can use what's going on in Greece right now: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fuel-shortage-hits-Greece-as-apf-1182321877.html?x=0&.v=3 or you can wait for the sequel: EU The Implosion " The EU isn't going to implode, in fact the last thing you do in an Economic crisis is throw out your stabilizing institutions. One of two things will happen. One, the Germans will begrudgingly bail out the Greeks with the possible condition that Greece raises its retirement/pension age from 57 to something a bit more realistic. Two, the Germans don't bail out Greece, and they have to deal with the fact that their economy sucks for the next decade or so. Fuel shortages happen in Europe all the time. When I lived in Italy, there was serious gas rationing to the point where the heat was off between the hours of 9AM-4PM because of the natural gas shortage. It should also be stated that Mediterranean cultures tend to be riotous when things go poorly, so the protests in Athens are to be expected. The panic in Greece is a big deal and should be carefully analyzed by our good friend Pedro, but I'm not going to suggest EU implosion until there are riots in cities like Brussels and Berlin. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
MajorDamage	11. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 8:30 AM EST Ok, Akerris. I didn't write that the sequel was coming out next week. EU The Implosion will probably be 'released' in Spring 2011. Riots are not the only indicator. Societal collapse doesn't always involve an invading barbarian horde (the EU has some of that too going on) since that serves to wake everyone up to reality, quicker. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
John_234	12. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 1:41 PM EST "You are still assuming that in normal life, each pump is always in use." I'm just going to point out the out rule: If you find fault with it, do better. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	13. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 3:58 PM EST "Now I've got to find a way to keep that damn limeys head from getting too big from what I just said. " No worries TR, I took the "Nobody gets put under a microscope more than Pedro" as a slur on my manhood. A vile deceitful slur, mark you. :) MD, I fear you are right about the implosive nature of the EU. I'm just glad that the UK didn't join. It might well be a huge disaster, but I think they won't let it happen without a long fight. Not so much an implosion as a long, drawn out slide into oblivion. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
IanKaplan	14. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 4:35 PM EST "No, it's an average. Each station that gets daily deliveries eats through them each day. So if they get 30,000 litres a day, then they are going through 1,250 every hour. But real world says that some hours are going to be heavier, and some lighter. The calculations are the same in The Panic. Whilst I have averaged them out, I acknowledge that in the real world, not every pump will be used. However, the fuel will still be used up at roughly the same rate. So that means that customers will be filling up with more than average." "With 16 pumps (the largest in the UK have 20 or more), assuming 5 minutes per customer, that is 192 cars an hour." 16*(60/5)=192 I'm assuming thats how you did it? That assumes that all 16 pumps are always being used for the whole hour. That is highly unlikely. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	15. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 20 2010, 5:35 PM EST ""With 16 pumps (the largest in the UK have 20 or more), assuming 5 minutes per customer, that is 192 cars an hour." 16*(60/5)=192 I'm assuming thats how you did it? That assumes that all 16 pumps are always being used for the whole hour. That is highly unlikely." Ian, unless you can grasp the conecpt of an average model, I can't help you any further. Maybe a statistics class at the local community college? Post reply Do you find this valuable?
IanKaplan	16. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 21 2010, 12:21 AM EST "Ian, unless you can grasp the conecpt of an average model, I can't help you any further. Maybe a statistics class at the local community college?" eh, i'm in macroeconomics, and NOT at community college in case you get the wrong idea. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
Akerris	17. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 21 2010, 7:44 AM EST "Ok, Akerris. I didn't write that the sequel was coming out next week. EU The Implosion will probably be 'released' in Spring 2011. Riots are not the only indicator. Societal collapse doesn't always involve an invading barbarian horde (the EU has some of that too going on) since that serves to wake everyone up to reality, quicker." When I hear of an EU collpase it's usually on some sort of conservative media. THe idea is that the EU will collapse because of its unmentioned but assumed so called 'socialist' principles. I've been hearing about the imminent collapse of the EU from my conservative friends since 2004 and low and behold even in an economic crisis their currency is still doing better than ours. In truth Social Democracies more stable but less lucrative than our capitalistic Federal Republics. It's all a matter of trade offs, while the US has bigger economic crashes, we usually have better recoveries. Europe has less economic bubbles, but when they do they can be pretty lousy. The US has high employment but high underemployment, whereas Europe usually has high unemployment (by American standards) but low crime. When it comes down to it the smaller countries in the EU have the most to gain from staying a part of it. Greeks would rather give up goat based products than go back to the Drachma. As for the larger countries they may not have much to gain economically but they have the power to dictate policy, which mostly lies in the hands of Germany, France, and Italy. Essentially there's enough reason to stay together to prevent any sort of collapse. However, just to tie it back into the thread, I would really like our friend Pedro to examine how an EU 'Panic' will play out versus a UK panic or a US panic. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
Akerris	18. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 21 2010, 7:51 AM EST "eh, i'm in macroeconomics, and NOT at community college in case you get the wrong idea." Pedro's our resident mathematician if you haven't noticed. Just because the numbers in his model aren't exact, and they don't need to be, doesn't mean that the model is any less effective at demonstrating the point. He doesn't need to know how much the gas station is raking in so the owner can properly file his taxes, he's simply demonstrating the general chaos of the situation. Post reply Do you find this valuable?
PedroAsani	19. RE: Incorrect assumptions Feb 21 2010, 2:24 PM EST Well, my dear frogman, the EU collapse has nothing to do with any socialist principles. Just the traditional one that gets everyone into trouble: borrowing beyond their means. In this case, it is the fault of Greece. They overextended their credit, and the country has an endemic tax avoidance and tax evasion culture. So they can't begin to repay it without a radical shift in the thinking of their population. So they are hosed. Were the EU still separate, it wouldn't affect the other countries. But they are all using the same currency, and Greece's position is devaluing every other countries EU holdings. The issue now is that this could drag the other nations back into a recession. Ireland is one of four who are particularly susceptible. Post reply Do you find this valuable?

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