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Discussion: Reality.Reported This is a featured thread

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Pwned9080
Pwned9080
Reality.
May 12 2011, 3:48 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 3:48 PM EDT
I've been doing some calculations of an entirely human virus overcoming a city. And I just don't see it happening, at least here in the US, just about everyone has a gun and people will quickly learn that a bite is equivalent to a zombie.

So the only way a zombie virus could successfully stay alive in a single city, let alone travel to another city. Would be something along the lines of,
* A long to very long gestation time.
* An animal helping spread it(Rats, mice, birds).
* Or being airborne.
* Food or water contamination.
* Even an STI(STD) would be more effective than a bite(As long as they don't show signs immediately).

Now, I'm sure there are other ways it could spread and essentially overcome a human population. But without some "special weapon" a zombie virus spread by bite just wouldn't be viable.

Thoughts? Criticisms?

EDIT: And this isn't even taking into account military or police.
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Keyword tags: infection overcome
humanroach
humanroach
1. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 3:59 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 3:59 PM EDT
"I've been doing some calculations of an entirely human virus overcoming a city. And I just don't see it happening, at least here in the US, just about everyone has a gun and people will quickly learn that a bite is equivalent to a zombie.

So the only way a zombie virus could successfully stay alive in a single city, let alone travel to another city. Would be something along the lines of,
* A long to very long gestation time.
* An animal helping spread it(Rats, mice, birds).
* Or being airborne.
* Food or water contamination.
* Even an STI(STD) would be more effective than a bite(As long as they don't show signs immediately).

Now, I'm sure there are other ways it could spread and essentially overcome a human population. But without some "special weapon" a zombie virus spread by bite just wouldn't be viable.

Thoughts? Criticisms?

EDIT: And this isn't even taking into account military or police."
have you ever heard of that one dog that got rabies then a week later everydog in the nieghborhood had rabies too? no you havent because bites are a lowsy way to spread a virus. which is why you are correct in your assumption.

the zombie virus could be spread throughout the world if it was intentionally spread by a conspiracy. or maybe it comes in on a comet. the comet explodes on the surface of the earth and spread the spores around the world
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Acroman
Acroman
2. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:32 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:32 PM EDT
"have you ever heard of that one dog that got rabies then a week later everydog in the nieghborhood had rabies too? no you havent because bites are a lowsy way to spread a virus. which is why you are correct in your assumption.

the zombie virus could be spread throughout the world if it was intentionally spread by a conspiracy. or maybe it comes in on a comet. the comet explodes on the surface of the earth and spread the spores around the world
"
I think if a comet is approaching earth, then zombies should be the least of our worries
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humanroach
humanroach
3. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:35 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:35 PM EDT
we have survived worse impacts Do you find this valuable?    
Acroman
Acroman
4. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:39 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:41 PM EDT
"we have survived worse impacts"
Depends on the size of the comet i suppose
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humanroach
humanroach
5. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:42 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:42 PM EDT
"Such as?"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
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Acroman
Acroman
6. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:44 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:44 PM EDT
"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event"
(3–6 mi) above the Earth's surface, I assumed you were talking about direct impact
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FrankLeeDeRainged
FrankLeeDeRainged
7. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:46 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:46 PM EDT
Recommend Professor Christopher Duncan's (controversial) books about virology and the 1300's black death.

To sum it up briefly he proposed a highly contagious haemorrhagic virus (Lhasa fever/Marburg sort of thing) with a 3 week incubation period allowed the pandemic to maintain a steady 5 miles a day across some very sparsely populated parts of Europe.

And I'm recommending because if he was right then almost everything we thought we knew about the most famous and lethal disease in history was wrong. Now there's a thought. . .
_
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humanroach
humanroach
8. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:47 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:47 PM EDT
"(3–6 mi) above the Earth's surface, I assumed you were talking about direct impact"
"Although the meteoroid or comet burst in the air rather than hitting the surface, this event is still referred to as an impact"

either way.....

not every surface impact kills the planet
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Acroman
Acroman
9. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:48 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:48 PM EDT
""Although the meteoroid or comet burst in the air rather than hitting the surface, this event is still referred to as an impact"

either way.....

not every surface impact kills the planet"
I realize that.
The Tsar Bomba was a 50-megaton explosion, but no "impact"
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Pwned9080
Pwned9080
10. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:53 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:53 PM EDT
"Recommend Professor Christopher Duncan's (controversial) books about virology and the 1300's black death.

To sum it up briefly he proposed a highly contagious haemorrhagic virus (Lhasa fever/Marburg sort of thing) with a 3 week incubation period allowed the pandemic to maintain a steady 5 miles a day across some very sparsely populated parts of Europe.

And I'm recommending because if he was right then almost everything we thought we knew about the most famous and lethal disease in history was wrong. Now there's a thought. . .
_"
Yes, but I'm sure he's not taking into account the infected being gunned down.
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Pwned9080
Pwned9080
11. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 4:54 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 4:54 PM EDT
Could we please remain on topic? Do you find this valuable?    
Acroman
Acroman
12. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 5:01 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 5:01 PM EDT
"I've been doing some calculations of an entirely human virus overcoming a city. And I just don't see it happening, at least here in the US, just about everyone has a gun and people will quickly learn that a bite is equivalent to a zombie.

So the only way a zombie virus could successfully stay alive in a single city, let alone travel to another city. Would be something along the lines of,
* A long to very long gestation time.
* An animal helping spread it(Rats, mice, birds).
* Or being airborne.
* Food or water contamination.
* Even an STI(STD) would be more effective than a bite(As long as they don't show signs immediately).

Now, I'm sure there are other ways it could spread and essentially overcome a human population. But without some "special weapon" a zombie virus spread by bite just wouldn't be viable.

Thoughts? Criticisms?

EDIT: And this isn't even taking into account military or police."
I agree, first of all, the average person can usually stop someone from biting them, secondly if they cant, they can attract enough attention to get help.
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ZombieInformer
ZombieInformer
13. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 5:07 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 5:07 PM EDT
"I've been doing some calculations of an entirely human virus overcoming a city."
Out of curiosity, could I see what those calculations look like?
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SGTGerman
SGTGerman
14. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 5:10 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 5:10 PM EDT
"I agree, first of all, the average person can usually stop someone from biting them, secondly if they cant, they can attract enough attention to get help."
This all assuming that the zombies are the indrebily slow and dumb ones. I'm not sure this would the case if the we had the "fast" zeds roaming the streets.
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Carnack
Carnack
15. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 5:20 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 5:20 PM EDT
"Yes, but I'm sure he's not taking into account the infected being gunned down."
And we could spot infected people?

More importantly depending on the mental state they could just as easily shoot back.

In addition while it is true that a lot of people have guns it's very much regional. As in you have one region where a lot of guns are present and then another where few have them.

Secondly humans in general are not primed for violence against human beings. So don't think that it will pan out as people immediatly reacting to the threat with appropriate force.

As for gestation time humans have become very a mobile species. An outbreak in Tokyo or other business center could spread it worldwide.
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Pwned9080
Pwned9080
16. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 5:35 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 5:35 PM EDT
"And we could spot infected people?

More importantly depending on the mental state they could just as easily shoot back.

In addition while it is true that a lot of people have guns it's very much regional. As in you have one region where a lot of guns are present and then another where few have them.

Secondly humans in general are not primed for violence against human beings. So don't think that it will pan out as people immediatly reacting to the threat with appropriate force.

As for gestation time humans have become very a mobile species. An outbreak in Tokyo or other business center could spread it worldwide."
I'm not saying that there wouldn't be uninfected casualties. People would panic, there would be a lot of killing.
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Pwned9080
Pwned9080
17. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 5:39 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 5:39 PM EDT
"Out of curiosity, could I see what those calculations look like?"
Well, I don't have it in a mathematic formula right now it's a PHP script. It's also not currently working because I broke it when trying to give the infection a gestation time. If you'd like to see the code, or a link to it just PM me.
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FrankLeeDeRainged
FrankLeeDeRainged
18. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 6:12 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 6:12 PM EDT
A researcher called Bradford Hill is a big, Big! name in epidemiology. He came up with the current guidelines for the discipline, the Bradford-Hill criteria.

One of the criteria says there needs to be a mechanism between cause and effect in an epidemic but he also says that your not necessarily going to find the mechanism because your understanding will always be incomplete!

And that's what all of the zombie scenarios hinge on, no? Some left field, curve ball, out of the blue change in the conditions we believe are normal and constant.

I suspect you are trying to count the uncountable mate.
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BigLoki
BigLoki
19. RE: Reality.
May 12 2011, 6:18 PM EDT | Post edited: May 12 2011, 6:18 PM EDT
I agree... but it all depends on what kind of parameters we're going by. I have done similar, mathematical calculations on another thread when I was a new member. If the gestation period is longer than 6 hours, and the contact is saliva, not just specifically a bite... then we could easily be very, very screwed in a relatively short period of time. I'll try to find the thread, so somebody can pick my math apart... I believe I came up with something ridiculous like a 60% infection rate of the population 5 weeks in, not accounting for loss of life. Do you find this valuable?    
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